Out of place?

Many churches focus on family, family, family. Which means that couples (married couples, of course) are the prime base for everything that goes on.

Which leaves the singles out. Single men barely exist in churches - they're regarded as a bit strange, and possibly to be avoided. Marry them off quickly if you can.

As for single women. Hmmm. How do they fit in? Awkward phrases like 'left on the shelf' still linger in the 21st century air. Well, at least they're good for teaching Sunday School: safe, (safer than the men - they're positively dangerous in Sunday School, and even if they're safe they have a tendency to make the kids hyper).

You may disagree and say all this is generalization. Of course it is, but there's a hint of truth in it. And what started me thinking about it, in part, was an article in The Guardian: Another Year, same old witch-hunt. Another Year is the name of the latest Mike Leigh movie, which features a married couple and a single woman, and the article reviews the movie in part.

But what is more interesting about the article is its focus on single women, in which it states that half of women under 35 live alone. Now, this is an English stat, and I'm not sure that I'd take it as gospel (considering its source); nevertheless it indicates that there is an issue, and things may be similar here in New Zealand.

To quote: One survey found that half of its sample [of married couples] never had single women as visitors, and 19% knew no single women at all. Casual disregard for this social group goes unremarked. Our prime minister insists that marriage must be prioritised and rewarded. The last government repeatedly identified "hard-working families" as its abiding concern. In a world centred on cosily coupled units, leftover women labour under an enduring disadvantage. When they're not ignored completely, they're expected to provide tireless but unrecompensed support for people who matter more than them, as babysitters, carers or shoulders to cry on.

Note that the Government regards married couples as their prime focus too.

So what's the point of this post? Single women in our churches: how do they find a 'place' - they find a place? Or is there such an emphasis in every respect on couples that single people feel out of place?

You don't have to believe these, but...

The latest demographic trends are out now, with a focus on 2009. It's wise to remember that these are projections - some may prove accurate, some not. (The NZ birth rate took a surprising leap forward in the last year or two, for instance, something that wasn't expected.) I've italicized some of the more interesting points:

New Zealand’s population is projected to reach five million in the mid-2020s, according to the mid-range scenario (series 5) of the 2009-base projections.

The population growth rate will slow steadily, because of the narrowing gap between births and deaths. By 2061, natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to be 5,000, down from over 30,000 in 2009.

The age structure of the population will continue to undergo gradual but significant changes, resulting in more older people and further ageing of the population.

Half of New Zealand’s population will be aged 43 years and older by 2061, compared with a median age of 37 years in 2009.

The population aged 65 years and over will surpass one million by the late-2020s, compared with 550,000 in 2009.

Between 2006 and 2026, the broad Asian, Pacific, and Māori ethnic populations are all projected to grow faster than the New Zealand population overall.

The numbers of families and households will grow faster than the population between 2006 and 2031, reflecting the trend towards smaller average household size.

The average size of households will decrease from 2.6 people in 2006 to 2.4 people in 2031.

One-person households are projected to increase by an average of 2.2 percent a year, from 363,000 in 2006 to 619,000 in 2031.

Most of the growth in families will be in ‘couple without children’ families, as the large number of people born during the 1950s to early-1970s reach ages 50 years and over.

New Zealand's labour force is projected to keep increasing from an estimated 2.24 million in 2006 to 2.65 million in 2031, and 2.79 million in 2061.

Half the New Zealand labour force will be older than 42 years in 2031, compared with a median age of 40 years in 2006, and 36 years in 1991.

There are a number of important points here - some we've mentioned more than once on this blog. How significant is the increase in non-European peoples for the nation as a whole? What about all those people living alone in their own little houses - there's a whole ministry in that area alone for many churches. Will we as Christians be ready for the increase in older people - or will we continue to focus mostly on the young (important as that is)?

Stats picture by roel

Some new stats from NZ Stats

Some new stats from NZ Stats.

The following highlights are from the National Family and Household Projections 2006-2031. The projections assume medium fertility, medium mortality, and long-term annual net migration of 10,000:

• The number of families is projected to reach 1.44 million by 2031, an increase of 269,000 (23 percent) from an estimated 1.17 million families at 30 June 2006.
• Most of the growth in families will be in couple without children families, which will overtake two-parent families to become the most common family type by 2008.
• The number of households is projected to reach 2.09 million by 2031, an increase of 535,000 (34 percent) from an estimated 1.55 million households at 30 June 2006.
• One-person households are projected to increase by 71 percent, from 363,000 in 2006 to 619,000 in 2031.
• The average size of households will decrease to 2.4 people by 2031, from 2.6 people in 2006.
• The numbers of families and households will grow faster than the population, which is projected to increase by 22 percent between 2006 and 2031.

The italicised points are particularly interesting: more couples without children than with children: what will happen to all the teachers and schools?
A big increase in one-person households – and loneliness.
Does it seem likely churches' focus may have to shift from ministering to the young to ministering to older people?

On Abortion

While New Zealanders wait for the outcome of Justice Forrest Miller's criticism of the Abortion Supervisory Committee, a new study commissioned by Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good has concluded that government social spending and economic conditions do more to reduce abortions than legal strategies such as parental consent laws. You can read a summary of this here.

Mary Nelson writes:

Joseph Wright (Penn State University) and Michael Bailey's (Georgetown University) examined the dramatic drop in abortions in the 1990s. The results are significant. States that spend more generously on nutritional supplement programs, for example, could see up to 37 percent lower abortion rates. Other factors such as cutting welfare more slowly and higher male employment rates had a 20 to 29 percent reduction rate.

The negative approaches don't seem to work. Welfare caps on children born while on welfare and laws requiring parental consent for minors have only negligible impact. The study concludes that "pro-family policies reduce abortions."

Both Republicans and Democrats should take note. The authors estimate that increased welfare payments and less Medicaid funding for abortions could lower the current abortion rate by 37 percent.

Perhaps the New Zealand Government might take note: not caring for young families and not helping men and fathers in particular to work, is a dangerous social policy.

Child Poverty in New Zealand

The Maxim Institute notes that:
The Child Poverty Action Group is arguing that those who live on the lowest incomes in our society should receive more help—at the expense of those making use of the new KiwiSaver scheme. These controversial recommendations are made in CPAG's latest report Left behind: How social and income inequalities damage New Zealand children. The report claims some facets of Working for Families are in fact "discrimination against the children of beneficiaries." It also calls for further help in the form of higher benefits, smaller taxes on the lowest incomes, and increased health and education services for children. It is suggested these increases should be funded by removing the Government contribution to KiwiSaver, by way of the employer tax credit. The report raises some important questions about the role of welfare, should it be helping those who are poorest in our society or be used instead of tax cuts to redistribute wealth through the middle class.

The Executive summary of Left Behind is available online here. The full report is available as a hardcopy from CPAG.

Safer Children in a Digital World

The report of the Byron review on Children and the Internet came out just last month. This is a UK report initiated by the British government, and is extensive in its findings (it runs to 226 pages in the FTP version) on the risks to children of potentially harmful or inappropriate material on the internet and in video games. You can download it off the Net (along with several related documents) at the Department for Children, Schools and Families. (Is it just me, or does that department's title seem to have the names out of order of importance - I'd be putting Families second or even first!)

Dr Byron' press release includes a summary of the groundbreaking recommendations in her report. She concludes that while new technologies bring incredible opportunities to children and young people, parents' general lack of confidence and awareness is leaving children vulnerable to risks within their digital worlds. Many parents seem to believe that when their child is online it is similar to watching television. Dr Byron is keen to emphasise that in fact it is more like opening the front door and letting a child go outside to play, unsupervised. Digital world risks are similar to real world risks but can be enhanced by the anonymity and ubiquity that the online space brings.