You don't have to believe these, but...

The latest demographic trends are out now, with a focus on 2009. It's wise to remember that these are projections - some may prove accurate, some not. (The NZ birth rate took a surprising leap forward in the last year or two, for instance, something that wasn't expected.) I've italicized some of the more interesting points:

New Zealand’s population is projected to reach five million in the mid-2020s, according to the mid-range scenario (series 5) of the 2009-base projections.

The population growth rate will slow steadily, because of the narrowing gap between births and deaths. By 2061, natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to be 5,000, down from over 30,000 in 2009.

The age structure of the population will continue to undergo gradual but significant changes, resulting in more older people and further ageing of the population.

Half of New Zealand’s population will be aged 43 years and older by 2061, compared with a median age of 37 years in 2009.

The population aged 65 years and over will surpass one million by the late-2020s, compared with 550,000 in 2009.

Between 2006 and 2026, the broad Asian, Pacific, and Māori ethnic populations are all projected to grow faster than the New Zealand population overall.

The numbers of families and households will grow faster than the population between 2006 and 2031, reflecting the trend towards smaller average household size.

The average size of households will decrease from 2.6 people in 2006 to 2.4 people in 2031.

One-person households are projected to increase by an average of 2.2 percent a year, from 363,000 in 2006 to 619,000 in 2031.

Most of the growth in families will be in ‘couple without children’ families, as the large number of people born during the 1950s to early-1970s reach ages 50 years and over.

New Zealand's labour force is projected to keep increasing from an estimated 2.24 million in 2006 to 2.65 million in 2031, and 2.79 million in 2061.

Half the New Zealand labour force will be older than 42 years in 2031, compared with a median age of 40 years in 2006, and 36 years in 1991.

There are a number of important points here - some we've mentioned more than once on this blog. How significant is the increase in non-European peoples for the nation as a whole? What about all those people living alone in their own little houses - there's a whole ministry in that area alone for many churches. Will we as Christians be ready for the increase in older people - or will we continue to focus mostly on the young (important as that is)?

Stats picture by roel

Caribbean parallels

Somewhere along the way, says general secretary of the United Church in the Cayman Islands (UCJCI) Rev Dr Colin Cowan, the church has lost its deep-rooted connection with its people. The church had stopped being relevant amid the hardships that communities faced. It had stopped offering real answers to real problems. In short, it had stopped listening.

This is an opening paragraph from an article on the United Church in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, where the Church experience in many ways parallels the (Presbyterian/United) Church in New Zealand. After a five to six year appraisal time, the church has come to various conclusions, including:

1. Instead of putting programmes together centrally and passing them onto congregations, the church is now getting the synod to “mirror what we hear God saying about what these communities really need.” Congregations can then interpret this within their own locality. The emphasis is on the synod as facilitator, not dictator.

2. A rigorous new training and appraisal regime has been rolled out as an integral part of the programme, aiming to bring ministers up-to-date with congregational needs and how to respond to them.

"We felt that the lack of growth with the church was directly related to these deep-rooted feelings across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands,” Dr Cowan says. “Responding to people’s needs became critical and an urgent call on the church. We realised that the church couldn’t give up – that hope remained the most critical instrument available to us. We had to ask ourselves: how do we use hope?

"It became clear that it was critical to empower the local congregations, to understand what was happening in people’s lives in the here and now,” Dr Cowan says. “The time had come to put the individual at the centre of our ministry and then get our congregations supporting the individual.”

“If we had left things the way they were I think we would have become more and more nominal as a church, existing without energy, power and dynamism. Members would continue to drop off and we would start to disintegrate, losing our cutting edge and our engagement with our communities."

Does it all sound familiar - and are we prepared to do the same sort of rethinking?

Photo of the Elmslie Memorial United Church, George Town, Grand Cayman Island, by J Stephen Conn a semi-retired clergyman.

No unhappy staff

"There’s an equation in business that many organisations and managers use involving profits, goods and services, and people. It appears to me that most businesses get this equation wrong because they put profits first, then goods and services, then the people who work for them. But the most successful organisations, the best places to work, the world’s greatest leaders will all tell you the same thing – put people first."

"It’s one thing to say you do it, but do you behave like you do, and do your people believe it."

After a survey in which 68% of the staff said they were happy, Kendall’s firm decided to find out where they were going wrong with the other 34% - and then put them in charge of getting it right. The latest survey shows that their new approach works: no unhappy staff.

Kendall says "staff are asked to categorise their issues, and the decisions they want made, into one of four areas:

• Management makes the decision. No questions asked.
• Everyone has input; management has final say.
  
• Everyone has input and we all agree on the outcome.
  
• Everyone has input and staff decide the outcome. Management butts out."
  

Extracts from a piece in NZ Management (Sept 09): On People Ahead of Profit, by Annette Kendall.

Take the Time: Value Older People

I've written a few times on this blog about the need to remember that older people have great value, not just in the church, but in society in general.

Now Family Violence in tandem with Age Concern has produced a pamphlet to help people review their attitudes to the elderly, especially older members of their own family. One one hand it shows up the manipulations of some adult children, the stubbornness of the elderly, and the way in which grandchildren can sometimes be more perceptive than their parents about the older generation. On the other hand, it shows the need for creativity when it comes to helping older people, and the need to remember that they still like (and have every right) to make decisions about their own lives.

Simply produced, with some excellent colour photos, this is a handy booklet to put on your church information table. There's also a summary of a research report on elder abuse and neglect here.

The death of an old person...

"The death of an old person is like the burning of a library." So wrote Alex Haley, the author of Roots, and other stories of African origins. ( Or, if he didn't write it, he 'borrowed' it from his African past, as the words are often thought to be an African proverb. )

It's quoted in an article on caring for old people - I make no apology for this being nine years old (nothing on the Net ever grows old!) - called Aging and Ageism: Can You Have One Without the Other? by Karen Henderson.

The author looks at our attitudes to old people: Everyone gets old. None of us should be surprised or angry; it's a fact of life. But what's also a fact of life is this: we don't treat older people as people. We treat them as a commodity to be used, abused and disposed of as we see fit. We somehow learn to raise our children; we try to give our pets a good life. Why can't we extend the same efforts to our older people?

The article isn't long, but it has plenty of good things to say about older/elderly people (they're always people who are older than me, by the way!) and the way we think about them, and act towards them. It's probably addressed to the inbetween generation - those who have elderly parents and growing children - but it's applicable to anyone, anywhere.

Photo courtesy of Flickr.com

Social Networking 101

Do you still think that there's no great value in being involved in sites like Facebook, My Space and the like? That they're just places where people waste time, and don't have anything real to do with each other? That they're not really the sort of thing churches should be getting involved in?

Well, check out this speedy little piece of teaching on Social Networks.



It's done simply, cleverly and with humour, and gives you an easy way to understand the value of Social Networking (which, it points out, isn't anything new - it just happens to take on a slightly different flavour on the Net).

Some new stats from NZ Stats

Some new stats from NZ Stats.

The following highlights are from the National Family and Household Projections 2006-2031. The projections assume medium fertility, medium mortality, and long-term annual net migration of 10,000:

• The number of families is projected to reach 1.44 million by 2031, an increase of 269,000 (23 percent) from an estimated 1.17 million families at 30 June 2006.
• Most of the growth in families will be in couple without children families, which will overtake two-parent families to become the most common family type by 2008.
• The number of households is projected to reach 2.09 million by 2031, an increase of 535,000 (34 percent) from an estimated 1.55 million households at 30 June 2006.
• One-person households are projected to increase by 71 percent, from 363,000 in 2006 to 619,000 in 2031.
• The average size of households will decrease to 2.4 people by 2031, from 2.6 people in 2006.
• The numbers of families and households will grow faster than the population, which is projected to increase by 22 percent between 2006 and 2031.

The italicised points are particularly interesting: more couples without children than with children: what will happen to all the teachers and schools?
A big increase in one-person households – and loneliness.
Does it seem likely churches' focus may have to shift from ministering to the young to ministering to older people?

Stats and Stories

As someone who spends a good deal of his working week checking out stats and figures, trying to make sense of what's happening in the world by looking at charts and tables, it was good to have a reminder from the Maxim Institute's newsletter that it's easy to lose track of the real people behind all the numbers. I quote:
We need a medium which will tell us the same truth as research reports, but one which is able to move us, to touch our hearts, and compel us to act. In fact, we need stories. An article in the Journal of Development Studies released earlier this year suggested just that—that the hidden power of the novel is a much undervalued spur to thought and action. Ask most people what they know about life in Afghanistan and they are much more able to summon up images of what they read in The Kite Runner (one of the books referred to in the study) than they are to talk about what they didn't read in Supporting the Development of Children's Groups and Networks in Afghanistan: Reflections on Practice and Possibilities.
and...
The power of a novel differs from that of a report—it comes from its recognition that human beings have stories. Instead of merely words on a page, the story they encompass becomes one we can relate to, one in which we can join. The world is far from simple and there are issues that matter deeply all around us. But amidst the "cacophony of voices" we need to hear the voice of the one—whether it asks for justice or freedom or compassion. And in this lies the power of the writer because it is characters, faces and stories which have the power to connect us individually with the issues of importance, to persuade us that they matter, to bring them in all their force before our shaded eyes.

This is why, in the National Mission Office, we're always looking for stories, about people, about the way mission is being done in a particular church or parish or presbytery, about failures, and successes. About real human beings rather than numbers. We love numbers, and they do tell us things that stories don't, but they're not the be all and end all.

If you have stories to tell, why not drop me a line on my email? You'll find it by clicking on the profile.