Ten going on sixteen

Ten Going On Sixteen is a profile of young New Zealanders in the transition years put out by the Ministry of Youth Development.   The data was collected by Victoria University’s Youth Connectedness Project from 2006 to 2008.

"The research was designed to test the hypothesis that “connectedness” – to family, peers, school and community – is predictive of subsequent health and wellbeing of young people. The hypothesis was confirmed, with “connectedness to family and school” most strongly predictive of subsequent happiness, self sense of identity. "

While the report online is not particularly detailed (the spirituality section is very skimpy) is does highlight some interesting factors about young people, things that it might be useful for youth group leaders to know about. 

It shows that in general most children are happy with their parents and friends - boys in particular say they get on well with their families.   Girls tend to be happier when they're in the younger age range and grow less happy from the time they're 12.  Boys for the most part stay happy.  

In regard to the girls' decrease in happiness, this is mostly put down to the onset of puberty.  "Given that the average age that girls have their first period is 12-13, the explanation is likely to lie in the interaction between pubertal stage and social and cultural expectations.  The onset of puberty has already been linked to increase in depression and increased rates of self harm among adolescent girls.  In societies where expectations of girls are high, the levels of stress and anxiety among young women seem also to be higher."

There are a small group in both sexes who say they are sad most of the time around the time they're ten years old.   However, the report doesn't show whether these particular children had specific reasons to be sad.   Broken family relationships barely come into the report. 

It was a slight surprise to me to see how early many of the children are starting to drink alcohol. 

• Drinking becomes a normal behaviour for young people between the ages of 10 and 16.
• Between the ages of 12 and 14, the percentage of boys who say they drink alcohol on one or two days a month or more doubles - from 16 percent at age 12 to 35 per cent at age 14. 
• For girls the increase is even higher, from 13 per cent at age 12 to 44 per cent at age 14.
• At age 14, more girls than boys report drinking, but by age 16, the boys have caught up.
• At age 15, over half of the young people in the survey say that they drink alcohol on one or two days a month or more.
• At age 16, 71 per cent of boys and 66 per cent of girls say they drink alcohol one or two days a month or more.
• Around three per cent of the young people in this survey are ‘serious’drinkers, drinking on ten days a month or more.

The question has to be asked: where do they get the alcohol from?   

The survey was taken from around 50% European children, 30% Maori, and 20% of other ethnicities. 

Get ready Church!

In the most recent North & South magazine (August 2010) Mike White presents some interesting statistics and projections regarding New Zealand's population. Every one of these stats affects how we do church. Remember that Israelite king who knew that something bad would happen to his children's generation and basically said, why should I care? We need not to be like that.

Currently 4,369,977 according to NZ Stats today (19.7.10)
By 2027 our population could be up to five million
Another person is added every 20 minutes.
Some 700,000 NZeders live overseas.

In the year to March 2010, the population grew by 56,300, the fastest growth rate since 2004.
It wasn't the result primarily of migration.
In 2009 there were 62,543 births and 28,964 deaths with a net gain of 33,579.
Net migration only added 21,253.

An argument for increased population is that if we want to maintain our lifestyle without excessive cost, we will need more people. Our infrastructure at the moment is costing more than we can afford given how ‘few’ we are.

Auckland Regional Council estimated the region is growing by more than 50 people a day, requiring 21 new homes, and resulting in 35 extra cars on the road.

Auckland is predicted to grow by 570,000 by 2031, reaching two million (the equivalent of adding all of Wellington and Dunedin to Auckland).

Auckland needs to consider and fund several major transport projects:
• Second harbour crossing at $4 billion
• Underground CBD rail loop at $1.5 billion
• Rapid-rail link with the airport at $1 billion
• Completion of SH20 at $2 billion.

There's too much talk of migration making the difference to the population – bringing people in with money and then being able to charge them for living here – compared with making sure that young people stay here in the country rather than t go off overseas and not return.

In 2009 one in eight NZeders was over 65.
By 2061 it’s predicted that one in four will be - some 1.44 million people.
Life expectancy for men will be 85.6 and women 88.7 in 2061.

The median age in 1971 was 25. Currently it’s 37. In 2061 it’ll be 43.

In the late 1960s, children made up 33 percent of the population. in 2061 they’ll be just 17%.

Currently 67% of the population is working age; in 2061 it’ll be just 58%.

Facebook growth

Thanks for Bosco Peters for the following information. (Bosco is a great user of the Internet - his Liturgy page recently reached the million-reader mark - which goes to show that it doesn't matter where in the world you live, you can make an impact. Bosco's in Christchurch, and has been Chaplain at Christ's College for as long as I've known him.)

[A fortnight ago] there were 1,248,360 people on Facebook in New Zealand (population about 4,268,900 – ie about 30% of all Kiwis are on Facebook). The proportion is not much different to other first world nations.

Checking a couple of weeks later, there are now 1,375,560 Kiwis on Facebook (32%): 127,200 have joined within the last fortnight! In New Zealand! 10% increase in a fortnight!

You may not think this is as exciting as Bosco does - I'm in agreement with him that it's significant at least - but it does show that Facebook has enormous value for a large number of Kiwis. Yes, many of those who join don't go on to do much with Facebook, but their name and the links they've made to others remains until they finally decide to close down their membership.

5 Barriers to Church Growth

Back in August this year we posted a piece relating to Charles Arn and his five principles of church growth. [Church growth principles remain.]

I've just come across another piece by Arn, which looks at the same issue from the opposite perspective. He calls it 5 Barriers to Church Growth. (Mr Arn actually cheats a little - there are nine points in all in his article, but we won't quibble too much.)

The five barriers are simply stated: the Pastor himself can be the first barrier, the Congregation can be the second, perceived irrelevance (on behalf of the community the church is situated in) the third, using the wrong methods the fourth, and finally having no plan for assimilation.

No new words there, you might say, but these are things that we need to keep reminding ourselves about. That church down the road that is growing: does the pastor have vision and communicate it? Does the congregation have a sense of being ministers to their local community (which will deal to the third issue)? Is that church using methods that we might consider trendy or faddy or out in the left field? Do they have a way of making sure new disciples grow?

If the answer to more than one of these is Yes, then perhaps they're doing something right. Worth checking out!

Grab 'em while they're young?

Barna Research begins its comments on recent research into the correlation between regular attendance at church as a child/teenager and ongoing attendance and faith as an adult by saying:

What is the connection between childhood faith and adult religious commitment? Parents and religious leaders are naturally interested in knowing if spiritual investment in young lives pays off in the long run.

A 'pay-off' may not be how you view your 'spiritual investment' in children, nevertheless, there's no doubt that bringing children to church as a norm when they're young, and aiming to keep them involved through their teenage years does make a difference in their adult view of faith. They may change their views, they may slide away from regular church attendance, but the spiritual input from the early years is seldom lost entirely.

Check out more detail on Barna's research on the Long-Term Effect of Spiritual Activity among Children and Teens here.

Changing ethnicity

Something that we need to watch in our statistical analyses: ethnicity can 'change' over time. During the course of a longitudinal study of New Zealand ethnicity, it was found that some people changed their ethnicity at least once if not twice during the duration.

By ethnicity in this instance meant that they favoured a particular ethnic group over another, or a mix of ethnicities. In part this is a result of social change and the acceptability of being something other than what you’d been brought up to be.

However, it means that statistical figures, whether they be Census figures or ones taken in other situations, can be more untrustworthy than we think when viewed over a longer period.

In Canada, for example, Guimond (2006) found that the census count of the population with aboriginal origin went from 711,000 to 1,102,000 persons, with a large part of this growth occurring between 1986 and 1991. He noted that this fast growth could not be explained by natural and migratory increases alone, and that much ethnic mobility was occurring. (Pg 2 of the report)

There may not be such extreme ‘growth’ here, but certainly the possibilities of change are worth bearing in mind.

Photo by mac steve

Church Growth Principles Remain

In an article entitled The Top Five Church Growth Principles, by Charles Arn (the son of Win Arn), briefly discusses the five main reasons why churches grow. It isn't programmes (we knew that, didn't we?); it isn't sound and light and huge displays of talent (of course!); it isn't a host of other things we've come up with over the years.

The five things are simple, and have been with us for a long time:

1. Disciple-making is the priority. Yup, that's what churches are there for.
2. Social networks are the vehicle - and while Mr Arn probably doesn't mean virtual social networks, it's that old connection of people to people that counts.
3. Felt needs are the connecting point. Starting where people are at...
4. Relationships are the glue. Being connected to people in the church is what stops people sliding out the back door.
5. Transitions provide the window of opportunity. When someone's going through a crisis, then they need Christ.

The links throughout are people, community, friendships, caring for others, love. Pretty simple, really. Now, go forth and multiply!

Couple of Quotes

O Lord, open my eyes that I may see the needs of others; open my ears that I may hear their cries; open my heart so that they need not be without succor; let me not be afraid to defend the weak because of the anger of the strong, nor afraid to defend the poor because of the anger of the rich ... And so open my eyes and my ears that I may this coming day be able to do some work of peace for thee.

- Alan Paton

And this is the difference between myself at age 17 and myself at age 27. It's not that the world has changed so much--it hasn't. It's not that I have changed so much--I haven't. It's not even that my faith or my concept of God has changed so much, although it has, in every way but the most essential. What is different is that while I may yet feel the need to qualify my faith, I no longer feel the need to justify it to my non-Christian friends. In the same way, while I may feel the need to explain my perspective on issues of politics and culture, I no longer feel the need to justify it to my Christian friends. This may not seem like a big leap to you readers out there, but believe-you-me, amigos, it is--it's the difference between the shopping mall and the sewing room, the produce aisle and the garden. My master's program friends might call it agency, my Christian friends might call it grace and if I had to call it anything at all, I'd call it a relief.

Meredith Kathryn-Case Gipson Hoogendam
"Out of the closet, into the forest" in catapult magazine

I'm not sure why this lady has quite so many names....you'd think there'd be few Meredith Hoogendams around...!

Numbers and Growth

Duncan Brown writes:

I recently met with a significant leader and pioneer of one of the world's most significant Christian humanitarian organisations. He is sought after globally as a speaker and mentor. As he reflected on the many organisations and leaders he connected with, he was encouraged that they were more intentional about their planning. But he was less glowing about what they were planning towards.

What was worrying this leader was the fact that for many ministries, success took only one shape - numbers and growth. Except for the occasional reference to Christ, there was often little to distinguish the strategic intent of a Christian ministry from a corporation. Numbers and growth are important kingdom metrics but the role of Christian leaders is to search God for the often intangible signposts of success.