NZ's Population Grows in all regions

Some stats about population out today from Statistics NZ.

Auckland's population grew faster in the June 2010 year than any of the other 15 regions in the country. It has has now been New Zealand's fastest-growing region for the last nine June years. In the June 2010 year, Auckland's population grew by 23,300 (1.6 percent) and it was the only region with a growth rate above the 1.2 percent national average.

Natural increase (excess of births over deaths) made the main contribution to the Auckland region's population growth, accounting for 69 percent of growth in the June 2010 year.

"Auckland region's population has a relatively young age structure, with high proportions in the child-bearing ages," acting Population Statistics manager Kimberly Cullen said. "This results in a high number of births and gives the region built-in momentum for future growth."

New Zealand's 15 other regions all recorded population increases in the June 2010 year. Population growth rates ranged from 0.4 percent (West Coast) to 1.2 percent (Waikato and Canterbury).

"New Zealand experienced a rise in net migration in the June 2010 year because of fewer people leaving the country on a permanent or long-term basis," Ms Cullen said. "The rise in net migration, together with a high level of natural increase, has bolstered population growth in most of New Zealand's regions."

Most territorial authority areas (cities and districts) experienced population growth in the June 2010 year. Of New Zealand's 73 territorial authority areas, 68 had population increases, compared with 64 in 2009 and 59 in 2008.

Of the territorial authority areas, the Selwyn and Queenstown-Lakes districts had the highest growth rates in the June 2010 year (both up 2.5 percent). Other territorial authority areas with high growth rates included Manukau city and Rodney district (both up 1.9 percent), and Waitakere city (up 1.8 percent).

Update stats relating to Internet access and usage

Statistics NZ reports today that:

Mobile access plays an increasingly important role as New Zealanders use the Internet both at home and away from home. In over half of households with the Internet in 2009, a laptop or a hand-held computer was used to access the Internet at home, five times more than in 2006.

25% of Internet users in 2009 used mobile phones or wireless hot-spots to access the Internet while they were away from home. This compared with 14% of users in 2006.

“The increase may be because laptops are much more affordable now, and wireless connection technology is increasingly a standard function for laptops, Hand-held devices, and mobile phones,” Statistics NZ manager Gary Dunnet said.

There are still rural areas without broadband (rural in NZ Stats terms is an area with a population of less than 300). But even in more populated areas, cost is still a factor when it comes to using broadband.

At December 2009, almost half of New Zealand households not planning to get digital TV in the next 12 months cited cost as a reason for remaining on analogue broadcasting. This was followed by over 40 percent of households who stated they simply do not want it. {Nothing like a bit of the reactionary!] The move to digital TV by New Zealanders will allow analogue television to be switched off in the future. This will free up spectrum for other uses such as mobile broadband.

Over half of New Zealanders indicated they would vote online in general and local elections. Younger people and those earning higher incomes were more likely to vote online. These groups also have higher proportions of Internet users than other groups.

Get ready Church!

In the most recent North & South magazine (August 2010) Mike White presents some interesting statistics and projections regarding New Zealand's population. Every one of these stats affects how we do church. Remember that Israelite king who knew that something bad would happen to his children's generation and basically said, why should I care? We need not to be like that.

Currently 4,369,977 according to NZ Stats today (19.7.10)
By 2027 our population could be up to five million
Another person is added every 20 minutes.
Some 700,000 NZeders live overseas.

In the year to March 2010, the population grew by 56,300, the fastest growth rate since 2004.
It wasn't the result primarily of migration.
In 2009 there were 62,543 births and 28,964 deaths with a net gain of 33,579.
Net migration only added 21,253.

An argument for increased population is that if we want to maintain our lifestyle without excessive cost, we will need more people. Our infrastructure at the moment is costing more than we can afford given how ‘few’ we are.

Auckland Regional Council estimated the region is growing by more than 50 people a day, requiring 21 new homes, and resulting in 35 extra cars on the road.

Auckland is predicted to grow by 570,000 by 2031, reaching two million (the equivalent of adding all of Wellington and Dunedin to Auckland).

Auckland needs to consider and fund several major transport projects:
• Second harbour crossing at $4 billion
• Underground CBD rail loop at $1.5 billion
• Rapid-rail link with the airport at $1 billion
• Completion of SH20 at $2 billion.

There's too much talk of migration making the difference to the population – bringing people in with money and then being able to charge them for living here – compared with making sure that young people stay here in the country rather than t go off overseas and not return.

In 2009 one in eight NZeders was over 65.
By 2061 it’s predicted that one in four will be - some 1.44 million people.
Life expectancy for men will be 85.6 and women 88.7 in 2061.

The median age in 1971 was 25. Currently it’s 37. In 2061 it’ll be 43.

In the late 1960s, children made up 33 percent of the population. in 2061 they’ll be just 17%.

Currently 67% of the population is working age; in 2061 it’ll be just 58%.

Lots of new neighbours

This may either scare you or inspire you.

The world population is heading towards hitting the 7 billion mark. According to some calculations - those who like to predict absolutely everything down to the day - it will happen on the 9th April this year - in other words, around about a fortnight away.

This may or may not be a bit over-the-mark. At present the World Population Clock is showing 6,834,880,600, as I write. However with the speed of the meter it looks as though it'll hit the 6,834,881,000 mark before I've finished this post! [Yup, it did.]

That's a lot of little persons arriving in the world.

We hit 6 billion on 12th October, 1999 - now known as 6 Billion Day (although I can't say I've ever heard if called that). Of course, that was an estimate, like everything else to do with population. We were up to 6.5 billion sometime in 2006. Seven years for half a billion; four years for the next half a billion. It kind of makes your head explode.

Now if God is keeping track of all the hairs on everyone's head, how many hairs does He know about?

The old are taking over

The issues of Ageing - or Aging, as blogger insists it's spelt - are often a topic of posts on this blog, and I've just come across an article in the Guardian in which ageing is discussed (partly in a tongue-in-cheek style) by Zoe Williams. She blames election time on the 'sudden interest' in the topic, but that aside, there are some points to note in her piece that are relevant to the NZ scene - election time or no. Some quotes:

....it is an unarguable fact that the population is getting older; the impact is already being felt in dementia cases, which at 822,000 are 17% higher than previously estimated.

It is assumed that over-65s live in some condition of infirmity, when the most recent Health Survey for ­England ­suggests that the opposite is the case – the most commonly declared state of health, in any of the five age groups between 65 and death, is "no reported problems" (and that includes men!). So, as life expectancy rises and health improves at the early stages of ­pensionable age, ever more people will be ­working well into their 60s – ­transforming the equation of who's a burden and who isn't.

...a) there are more over-65s in this country than there are under-18s; and b) pensioners, for all their rude health, do cost more on account of their pensions – in 2005/06, £15,024 was spent on the average pensioner, £9,454 on the average child and £6,469 on the average person of working age.

Recently, Kevin Kelly of Wired magazine discussed the next 1,000 years of Christianity.
There's a summary by Kent Shaffer of what he said on the neoleader blog.
To give you a taste of what he said here's his list of possible future events...some of which might be tongue-in-cheek

• At the rate that new Christian denominations are growing, there could be 260,000 denominations by 2100.
• Mormons are growing fast. What if they become the world majority?
• The Amish are also growing fast. Could the world become Neo-Amish?
• Around 2050, will be the first time in history where we have doubled the world population but are expectedly to dramatically decrease it.
• What happens when robots with artificial intelligence say, “I too am a child of God?”
• Transhumanity
• With genetic engineering, will we remain one species or many?
• Wikipedia does not work in theory but in practice. What about Wikichurch?
• Christianity becomes hip.
• Purple Christians (a mix of Democrats and Republicans)
• Islam in Europe

You can check out the original half-hour video here.

Church in Decline? Think again!

One key exception, is Samuel P Huntington's book, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, one of the most widely read analyses of current global trends, which does pay serious attention to changing religious patterns. Even Huntington, though, understates the rising force of Christianity. He believes that the relative Christian share of global population will fall steeply in the new century, and that this religion will be supplanted by Islam: "In the long run...Muhammad wins out."
But far from Islam being the world's largest religion by 2020 or so, as Huntington suggests, Christianity will still have a massive lead, and will maintain its position into the foreseeable future. By 2050, there should still be about three Christians for every two Muslims worldwide. Some 34% of the world's people will then be Christian, roughly what the figure was at the height of European world hegemony in 1900.
Huntington's analysis of the evidnece is misguided in one crucial respect. While he rightly notes the phenomenal rates of population growth in Muslim countries, he ignores the fact that similar or even higher rates are also found in already populous Christian countries, above all in Africa. Alongside the Muslim efflorescence he rightly foresees, there will also be a Christian population explosion, often in the same or adjacent countries. If we look at the nations with the fastest popoulation growth and the youngest populations, they are evenly distributed between Christian and Muslim dominated societies.

From The Next Christendom; the coming of Global Christianity, by Philip Jenkins. age 5. Jenkins has written several books along similar lines, showing that Christianity is in anything but decline, even in Europe, where supposedly it's at death's door.